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Figure 1. Conceptual risk management methodology (as applied to landslides)

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Text Description of Figure:

An overview of the key steps within the methodology is given below.

Risk analysis

The initial stage of risk assessment involving scope identification, hazard and risk identification, and risk estimation.

Scope definition

Involves establishing a brief and proposed methodology to analyse the risks associated with natural hazards.

Hazard and risk identification

Recognising and accounting for all possible hazards that might occur within the place and time period of interest, and determining what adverse effects can happen, why and how.

Risk estimation

Estimating the risk associated with natural hazards using the processes of consequence analysis, hazard analysis and risk calculation.

Consequence analysis

Identifying the type of impact or loss expected from a given hazard or hazards by determining the elements at risk and their vulnerability.

Hazard analysis

The in-depth study and monitoring of hazards to determine their potential, origin, hazardimpact characteristics and behaviour, including their magnitude-frequency behaviour, historic performance and initiating (triggering) factors.

Risk calculation

Risk is calculated by combining hazard analysis and consequence analysis, i.e. a process to determine consequences x frequency. Calculation is generally based on the product of hazard, the value of elements at risk and their vulnerability. In quantitative terms risk is expressed as the probability of adverse effects, per unit of time, for a place, object, or activity. In qualitative terms the risk is expressed as a likelihood, rather than a probability.

Risk assessment

Assessing the risk associated with natural hazards using the processes of risk analysis and risk evaluation.

Risk evaluation

Determining the importance and relevance (significance) of the results of calculated or estimated riskwith reference to the social and physical context within which they occur. This process determines whether risk is, intolerable, tolerable or acceptable. Risk evaluation may involve considerations of risk perception, risk communication, risk comparison, and risk / benefit analysis, with the aim of developing some appropriate level or form of response. Implicitly or explicitly risk evaluation involves balancing risk with the benefits associated with exposure to that risk.

Risk management

The overall process to manage the risks associated with natural hazards. Includes risk analysis, risk assessment and risk treatment.

Risk treatment

That part of risk management which involves the implementation of policies, standards, procedures and physical changes to eliminate or minimise adverse risks. Incorporates the steps of assessing potential treatment options, developing a treatment plan detailing the selected options, implementing the plan, and monitoring / reviewing the plan.